Nvidia has carved out an unassailable position in the technology sector, particularly as a leading manufacturer of artificial intelligence (AI) chips. However, the recent upheaval in technology stocks, precipitated by the emergence of the Chinese AI startup DeepSeek, has led to increased skepticism among investors. Despite this turbulent trading environment, Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore has positioned Nvidia as a “top pick” for investors, aligning the company’s trajectory with potential growth opportunities over the coming months. His insights, stemming from a deep analysis of current market conditions, highlight the nuanced interplay between competitive pressures and Nvidia’s robust product line.
In his latest client note, Moore reaffirmed his “overweight” rating on Nvidia, tying it to a price target of $152—a projection that suggests an attractive upside of approximately 22% based on the stock’s recent close. This optimistic assessment is grounded in observations that, despite worsening sentiment regarding long-term market risks, Nvidia’s near-term business fundamentals have remained strong. Moore points to stable supply dynamics in the Blackwell series of chips and a discernible appetite from customers to invest, both critical factors that contribute to Nvidia’s ongoing strength.
The backdrop of this conversation is not without its challenges. Nvidia shares, despite witnessing astounding growth of nearly 85% over the past year, suffered a 17% drop in a single day following the DeepSeek announcement. This marked a historic decline in market value, underscoring the vulnerability inherent in the current tech landscape. Nevertheless, this decline presents a pivotal moment for investors, as such volatility often fosters unique buying opportunities for resilient companies.
DeepSeek’s ascent, particularly its ability to leverage less efficient yet cost-effective Nvidia components, speaks volumes about the complexities of the AI sector. By utilizing 10,000 Nvidia A100 chips—previously deemed avant-garde in AI modeling—DeepSeek has managed to position itself as a viable competitor to entrenched players like OpenAI. This disruption introduces both immediate challenges and long-term considerations for Nvidia, particularly regarding export controls and potential shifts in AI investment strategies.
While Moore acknowledges these headwinds, he emphasizes that the fundamental demand for Nvidia’s latest chip offerings—namely the Blackwell and Hopper series—remains robust. Notably, companies like CoreWeave have begun integrating Nvidia’s GB200 NVL72 instances into their cloud services, marking a significant achievement in making advanced technology accessible to a broader range of customers. Such developments suggest that Nvidia’s innovations continue to resonate within the market, providing avenues for both resilience and growth.
As the landscape of artificial intelligence evolves, Moore posits that Nvidia’s strengths will increasingly pivot towards its leadership in the inference market. Inference plays a vital role in enabling trained AI models to analyze new data and derive actionable insights. This segment is poised for growth as the complexity of inference tasks escalates, positioning Nvidia as a pivotal player in molding the future of AI applications.
According to Moore, the commitment of market leaders to scale artificial intelligence infrastructures indicates a sustained momentum that DeepSeek’s entry has not diminished. Companies across the spectrum are doubling down on their AI investment plans, which vastly benefits Nvidia given its market share and technological prowess in this domain. The analyst’s confidence is bolstered by a broader trend: the direction in which AI is heading requires advanced processing power and capabilities that a company like Nvidia is well-equipped to provide.
In a sector typified by rapid change and intense competition, Nvidia’s recent trials and tribulations underscore the intricate balance between risk and opportunity. With informed insights from industry analysts like Joseph Moore, investors can navigate these challenges to identify potential gains. As technological undercurrents continue to shift, Nvidia stands ready to harness its innovative capabilities, ensuring that it remains at the forefront of AI development. The interplay of competition, technology, and strategic investment will ultimately delineate Nvidia’s trajectory—one that analysts like Moore believe is still on a promising upward slope.